Interdum stultus opportuna loquitur...

Thursday, June 04, 2009

USRant: Down Among the Dead Men...

Note - from June 24th 2009, this blog has migrated from Blogger to a self-hosted version. Click here to go straight there.

Well, the DAX short I wrote about in yesterday's OzRant worked out nicely - the DAX cratered 100 points intraday, and it closed down 89 points... there was a little 'Hope for Change' bounce towards the close.

You might also have noticed of late, how well Crude Oil is doing - you will recall that when it was at about $38 I took a sneaky long scalp, and declared at the time that it could easily have been held for a $20k ride over the following few months. Well, here it is a few months later, and Crude is above $66... which is close to a $30k ride. Likewise Gold, where your handsome-and-beloved GT advocated a medium-term long position once we saw two consecutive closes above $775 an ounce.

Both of those (entirely-theoretical) positions face some possible headwinds in the coming few sessions, and I will tell you why.

The crooks who make their living by having an infiltrator at the Federal Reserve and Treasury (yes, I'm talking about you, Goldman Sachs and JPMorganChase) will try and ambush the gold price to try and hold it below $1066. That's a long way above the current close, but it's a real KEY to the future... and Gold could potentially get there in one session if it wasn't already being manipulated to buggery. The perpetrators - a den of vermin as dishonest as the British Parliament - will use money that they raped from the taxpayer, to manipulate the price of a commodity that gives people a warning that government meddling is fucking things up. Orwell would love it.

They will do that because they are the same variety of parasite as their political symbiotes (politicians): they make their livings by clipping tickets, using a government-granted monopolistic 'licence' to avoid competition... and people are dumb enough to listen to them.

Economic News

I'm not bothering with economic news for the next week or two - there is almost nothing to be gained by dissecting the bullshit and spin currently emanating from the US Government. That has been the case for quite some time, but lately it has just been ridiculous - with utter failures like essay-writer and hand-waver Ben Bernanke continuing to simply lie his ass off whenever asked any sensible question.

There is a simple rule that ought to be followed when it comes to macroeconomic analysis (and financial analysis in general): anyone who didn't see the current malaise coming, should be told to shut their fucking trap.

The rule has two corollaries: anyone who, as the current malaise was arriving, said "Oh, it's not a big deal... it'll be contained" should be told to shut their fucking idiot pie-hole. And anyone involved in the generational binge of theft and transfer to the banksters, should simply be killed and fed to pigs (free range pigs, of course).

Headline Indices

Insert material here

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 65.63 points (0.75%) to 8675.24 points. The index high for the day was 8740.39, while the low was 8598.38.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJI) fell -65.63 points (0.75%) to 8675.24 points. Total volume traded in the 30 components of the index was 1.18bn shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 4.8 to one, with 24 decliners to 5 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 1.06bn to 113.54m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Alcoa (AA) -0.45 (4.3%) to $10.07 on volume of 59.97m shares;
  • Du Pont (DD) -1.16 (3.9%) to $28.89 on volume of 9.42m shares;
  • Citigroup (C) -0.12 (3.4%) to $3.39 on volume of 215.22m shares; and
  • General Electric (GE) -0.3 (2.2%) to $13.5 on volume of 67.41m shares.

The S&P500 index (SPX) slid -12.98 points (1.37%) to 931.76 points. Total volume traded in the 500 components of the index was 4.23bn shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 6.3 to one, with 409 decliners to 65 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 3.69bn to 488.41m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Valero Energy (VLO) -3.98 (17.8%) to $18.4 on volume of 47.96m shares;
  • Tesoro Petroleum Co. (TSO) -2.33 (13.3%) to $15.17 on volume of 12.23m shares;
  • CIT Group (CIT) -0.4 (11.7%) to $3.01 on volume of 18.83m shares;
  • Gannett Co. (GCI) -0.49 (10.6%) to $4.13 on volume of 10.74m shares; and
  • Weatherford International Ltd. (WFT) -1.86 (8.5%) to $20 on volume of 24.25m shares.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 10.88 points (0.59%) to 1825.92 points. while the Nasdaq100 fell 4.87 points (0.33%) to 1475.44 points. Total volume traded in the 100 components of the index was 816.3m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 2.3 to one, with 67 decliners to 29 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 551.5m to 257.25m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) -1.56 (10%) to $14.03 on volume of 11.11m shares;
  • DISH Network (DISH) -1.68 (9.7%) to $15.56 on volume of 8.86m shares;
  • Leap Wireless International (LEAP) -2.48 (6.9%) to $33.62 on volume of 2.57m shares;
  • Lamar Advertising (LAMR) -1.29 (6.6%) to $18.13 on volume of 1.4m shares; and
  • Virgin Media (VMED) -0.51 (5.7%) to $8.44 on volume of 3.17m shares.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index rose +1.39 points (4.69%) to 31.02 points. and the CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index gained +0.84 points (2.74%) to 31.45 points..

Breadth and Internals

A total of 3827 issues traded today on the NYSE; today's total volume was 1.95bn shares. A total of 1003 stocks posted gains for the day, and volume in advancing issues totalled 0.95bn shares. Exerting downwards pressure on the index were 2716 losers, which accounted for a total declining volume of 0.97bn shares. 21 stocks made new 1-year highs on the NYSE, while 43 shares plumbed new 52-week depths.

On the Nasdaq 2828 tickers traded today; total Nasdaq volume was 2.25bn shares. A total of 1056 stocks posted gains for the day, with aggregate volume of 0.81bn shares changing hands in the day's winners. The red zone of the Nasdaq exchange comprised 1630 losers, and total declining volume was 1.42bn shares. 26 Nasdaq-listed stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 7 shares dipped to new 1-year lows.

Major Market Statistics
Index Close Gain(Loss) %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 8675.24-65.63-0.75%
S&P500 Index 931.76-12.98-1.37%
Nasdaq Composite 1825.92-10.88-0.59%
Nasdaq100 1475.44-4.87-0.33%
CBOE Volatility Index 31.02+1.394.69%
CBOE Nasdaq100 Volatility Index 31.45+0.842.74%

Dow Darlings

  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.95 (1.9%) to $50.88 on volume of 19.5m units
  • Microsoft (MSFT) +0.33 (1.5%) to $21.73 on volume of 55m units
  • McDonalds (MCD) +0.61 (1%) to $60.99 on volume of 10.2m units
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) +0.1 (0.2%) to $53.81 on volume of 12.3m units
  • Verizon (VZ) +0.02 (0.1%) to $29.59 on volume of 16.6m units

Dow Duds:

  • Alcoa (AA) -0.45 (4.3%) to $10.07 on volume of 60m units
  • Du Pont (DD) -1.16 (3.9%) to $28.89 on volume of 9.4m units
  • Citigroup (C) -0.12 (3.4%) to $3.39 on volume of 215.2m units
  • General Electric (GE) -0.3 (2.2%) to $13.5 on volume of 67.4m units
  • Caterpillar (CAT) -0.79 (2.1%) to $36.66 on volume of 9.1m units

Most Traded Dow stocks:

  • Bank Of America (BAC) -0.19 (1.7%) to $11.21 on volume of 232.9m units
  • Citigroup (C) -0.12 (3.4%) to $3.39 on volume of 215.2m units
  • JPMorganChase (JPM) -0.52 (1.5%) to $33.98 on volume of 71.1m units
  • General Electric (GE) -0.3 (2.2%) to $13.5 on volume of 67.4m units
  • Alcoa (AA) -0.45 (4.3%) to $10.07 on volume of 60m units
Precious Metals

I'm changing data-provider for precious metals quotes (for all commodity and forex qutoes, in fact), so for the next little while there will only be mention of the stocks and indices for Precious Metals and Energy.

The Gold Bugs index (XAU) slid -8.67 points (5.38%) to 152.51 points. Total volume traded in the 16 components of the index was 114.76m shares. None of the 16 index components rose today: 16 stocks within the index fell, with downside volume of 114.76m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Kinroos Gold (KGC) -1.69 (8.1%) to $19.27 on volume of 8.38m shares;
  • Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) -1.07 (7.8%) to $12.65 on volume of 7.22m shares;
  • Yamana Gold (AUY) -0.88 (7.4%) to $10.95 on volume of 17.61m shares;
  • Silver Stand Resources (SSRI) -1.63 (6.6%) to $23.04 on volume of 1.74m shares; and
  • Pan-American Silver (PAAS) -1.53 (6.4%) to $22.33 on volume of 1.44m shares.
Energy Complex

The Oil Services index (OSX) dipped -8.86 points (4.82%) to 175.1 points. Total volume traded in the 15 components of the index was 112.28m shares. None of the 15 index components rose today: 15 stocks within the index fell, with downside volume of 112.28m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Weatherford International (WFT) -1.86 (8.5%) to $20 on volume of 24.25m shares;
  • Nabors Industries (NBR) -1.54 (7.9%) to $17.96 on volume of 6.9m shares;
  • Global Industries (GLBL) -0.57 (7.6%) to $6.96 on volume of 1.51m shares;
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) -2.86 (7.1%) to $37.22 on volume of 9.61m shares; and
  • Smith International (SII) -1.87 (6.1%) to $28.67 on volume of 5.25m shares.
Currency Futures

Currency futures performed as follows -

Currency Futures
Index Close Gain(Loss) %

Bellwethers

The nine-stock group that makes up the Rant bellwethers declined on average by 1.7%. The fallout occurred as follows:

  • General Electric (GE) -0.3 (2.17%) to $13.50 on volume of 67.43m units.
  • Citigroup (C) -0.12 (3.42%) to $3.39 on volume of 215.23m units.
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) +0.95 (1.9%) to $50.88 on volume of 19.47m units.
  • IBM (IBM) -0.34 (0.32%) to $106.49 on volume of 7.49m units.
  • Intel (INTC) -0.25 (1.54%) to $15.94 on volume of 49.18m units.
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) -0.25 (1.27%) to $19.36 on volume of 54.53m units.
  • Google (GOOG) +3.25 (0.76%) to $431.65 on volume of 3.5m units.
  • Fannie Mae (FNM) -0.02 (2.86%) to $0.68 on volume of 13.38m units.
  • Freddie Mac (FRE) -0.05 (6.41%) to $0.73 on volume of 6.64m units.
Other Indices of Interest...

The Banks index (BKX) dropped -0.54 points (1.47%) to 36.14 points. Total volume traded in the 24 components of the index was 860.59m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 3.2 to one, with 16 decliners to 5 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 798.68m to 61.91m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) -0.19 (4.6%) to $3.96 on volume of 35.34m shares;
  • Keycorp (KEY) -0.22 (4.6%) to $4.6 on volume of 58.01m shares;
  • Zions Bancorp (ZION) -0.58 (4%) to $14.07 on volume of 3.71m shares;
  • PNC Financial (PNC) -1.54 (3.7%) to $40.33 on volume of 7.91m shares; and
  • Citigroup Inc (C) -0.12 (3.4%) to $3.39 on volume of 215.22m shares.

The Semiconductor index (SOX) was unchanged at 271.31 points. Total volume traded in the 18 components of the index was 233.94m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 16 to one, with 16 decliners to 1 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 224.32m to 9.62m shares. The index's rather boring situation arose as a result of a mixed bag of results, the most notable amongst these (in percentage terms) being -

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) -0.5 (4.6%) to $10.38 on volume of 28.68m shares;
  • ST Microelectronic (STM) -0.36 (4.6%) to $7.55 on volume of 1.62m shares;
  • National Semiconductor (NSM) -0.56 (4%) to $13.52 on volume of 8.59m shares;
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) -0.38 (3.4%) to $10.78 on volume of 17.75m shares; and
  • Teradyne (TER) -0.21 (2.9%) to $7.05 on volume of 4.89m shares.

The ChildKiller ("Defence") index (DFX) dropped -3.71 points (1.43%) to 255.48 points. Total volume traded in the 17 components of the index was 96.26m shares. Decliners outpaced gainers by 7 to one, with 14 decliners to 2 advancers. Declining volume was greater than advancing volume by 95.56m to 0.7m shares. The main decliners (in percentage terms) were -

  • Embraer Empresa (ERJ) -1.53 (7.9%) to $17.81 on volume of 1.91m shares;
  • General Dynamics (GD) -1.39 (2.3%) to $58.59 on volume of 2.28m shares;
  • General Electric (GE) -0.3 (2.2%) to $13.5 on volume of 67.41m shares;
  • L-3 Holdings (LLL) -1.31 (1.8%) to $73.47 on volume of 1.17m shares; and
  • Boeing (BA) -0.83 (1.7%) to $48.37 on volume of 4.54m shares.

at 12:48:00 am